In our weekly feature, Chasing the Red Plate, we'll take a look at the various points scenarios heading into the next race. Refer to the chart for each class to see where certain hypothetical finishes would put each rider in the race for the championship.
450 Class
| Budds Creek Point Scenarios | |||||
| Rider, Points | 1-1 | 2-2 | 3-3 | 4-4 | 5-5 |
| 1. Ryan Dungey, 186 | 236 | 230 | 226 | 222 | 218 |
| 2. Mike Alessi, 144 | 194 | 188 | 184 | 180 | 176 |
| 3. Jake Weimer, 141 | 191 | 185 | 181 | 177 | 173 |
| 4. Andrew Short, 128 | 178 | 172 | 168 | 164 | 160 |
Ryan Dungey once again has a very comfortable lead this week. He could DNF one moto and still hold onto the red plate as long as he finishes top-12 in the other moto.
If disaster were to strike Dungey in the form of two DNFs, Mike Alessi would need to finish 1-4 or 2-2 to take over the points lead. Jake Weimer's road would be a bit tougher, needing to finish 1-2 and also pick up a few points on Alessi.
Mike Alessi has put himself on the podium in 3 of 4 stops so far this year
Most of the intrigue right now is in the #2-4 spots in the points standings, where Alessi, Weimer and Andrew Short are separated by 16 points. A 1-3 finish would be enough to guarantee Alessi that he's still holding onto 2nd at the end of the weekend. The way Dungey's been asserting himself at the front of the field though, it will likely come down to a matter of whether Alessi can keep his bike in front of Weimer's throughout the day.
If Alessi finishes outside the top 4 in both motos, and Weimer finishes outside the top 3 as well in both, the door is open for Andrew Short to take over 2nd. In addition, a DNF by any of these 3 riders would obviously shake things up a ton.
250 Class
| Budds Creek Point Scenarios | |||||
| Rider, Points | 1-1 | 2-2 | 3-3 | 4-4 | 5-5 |
| 1. Blake Baggett, 175 | 225 | 219 | 215 | 211 | 207 |
| 2. Justin Barcia, 168 | 218 | 212 | 208 | 204 | 200 |
| 3. Eli Tomac, 164 | 214 | 208 | 204 | 200 | 196 |
| 4. Ken Roczen, 158 | 208 | 202 | 198 | 194 | 190 |
Last week, Blake Baggett saw his points lead shrink a bit, and now Justin Barcia is within striking distance. This weekend, Baggett will need to score a 1-5 or 2-2 to guarantee his place at the top of this list for another week.
If Justin Barcia sweeps the motos, he'll only need Baggett to go 2-3 or worse. If Barcia's teammate Eli Tomac is able to pull the sweep instead, then he'd be the new points leader if Baggett posts a 2-5 or 3-4 score.
Justin Barcia has chipped away at Baggett's lead over the last 2 weeks
Ken Roczen would need some help to take over the points lead, but he could at least move up to 2nd if he sweeps, Tomac goes 2-3, and Barcia posts a 3-4.
