|Lake Elsinore Point Scenarios|
|Rider, Current Points||1-1||2-2||3-3||4-4||5-5|
|1. Blake Baggett, 472||522||516||512||508||504|
|2. Eli Tomac, 458||508||502||498||494||490|
|3. Justin Barcia, 454||504||498||494||490||486|
As we enter the final race of the season, the 250 Class championship is really Blake Baggett's to lose. Despite the fact that the division has remained competitive all year, Baggett has never relinquished the red plate. Still, with three riders separated by 18 points, there are plenty of scenarios that could play out, and this title fight is by no means done.
If Baggett can finish inside the top 3 in both motos at Lake Elsinore, he'll lock up the championship. If he can come out and win the first moto, then he would just need to finish 12th or better in the second moto. Aside from a 1-12 result, Blake can also guarantee himself the #1 plate next year with a 2-6 or 3-4 score.
Should Baggett fail to hit those benchmarks, the door is open for the GEICO Honda boys, starting with Eli Tomac. If Tomac were to sweep both motos once again this week, he would need Baggett to post a 2-7, 3-5 or 4-4.
A 1-1 sweep by Justin Barcia would ensure that he moves past Eli Tomac in the standings. To pass Baggett however, he would need Blake to post a 2-12, 3-10, 4-8 or 5-6.
So, how will this play out? Last weekend at Steel City, Eli Tomac went 1-1, while Blake Baggett could only muster a 4-4. If those results repeated themselves this week, it would be enough for Tomac to come back and steal the title, as he would win the tiebreaker by virtue of having the most overall wins, 5-4 over Baggett.
Of course, a DNF in either moto by any of these three riders would likely put an immediate end to their title hopes. After seeing his lead cut in half last week, Baggett may not be able to play things as conservatively as he'd hope.
And how aggressive will the GEICO Honda teammates be? Maybe most importantly, will any team strategy come into play? Tomac and Barcia can certainly help each other by keeping Baggett behind them, but with both guys still in the points race, how likely is it that they'll work together at some point?